It's Time for Oscar

Good morning!

Here we are, one day away from the motion picture industry's biggest night. The nominees have been announced for a month now, and there has been plenty of speculation. It appears as my annual goal of seeing all of the Best Picture and Acting nominees might fall short. The only film I do not have access to seeing at this point is Biutiful, for which Javier Bardem is nominated for Best Actor. But if the experts are correct it won't really matter if I have seen it or not.

One nice thing about this year's nominees is that most average movie goers would have seen or go to see these films. Just as a recap, the ten Best Picture nominees are:

127 Hours
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Winter's Bone
Toy Story 3
Black Swan
True Grit

Now, as you may or may not know, the Academy expanded the Best Picture race last year to include ten nominees, which was done in theory so that there were films in the race that people have seen. Oddly enough though, is that the Best Picture race still ends up being a two or three horse race, with this year's front runners being the King's Speech and the Social Network. So what is the point then of having ten nominees? To spread the voting? To increase viewer-ship for films that don't stand a chance winning? Last year it was pretty easy to pick out which five films wouldn't have been nominated if the field was limited to just five nominees. This year isn't so easy. Clearly we'd have the King's Speech and Social Network in the field, leaving three more spots to be filled.

So who would have made it? Pretty safe to say that Toy Story 3, as fantastic as it was, would have been limited to conquering the Best Animated Feature category. Sorry, but fan favorite Inception would have missed the mark I believe. With no Directing nomination, no acting nominations, it likely wouldn't have been included. The Kids Are All Right maybe left out. You'd have to think Black Swan gets in, along with the Fighter for so many great acting performances, leaving one spot left. Would it go to True Grit? 127 Hours? Winter's Bone? It's a tough call. All of which are good films and extremely entertaining, so maybe the Academy got lucky this year having expanded the category and allowing them to include so many great films.

Predication time. Experts predict the King's Speech. As much as I loved that movie, my favorite is still the Social Network. I was blown away by the dialog, the story, the format, how the movie clipped along and never had a dull moment. A lot of pundits believe that a statement could be made by avoiding making the safe Oscar pick and going with the Social Network. I hope that is the case, but I wouldn't be real upset if the King's Speech won.

Acting. Lots of categories here. Let's start first with Best Actor.

Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network

So let's rule out Jeff Bridges, not because the academy isn't a fan of awarding the same person multiple times (Sean Penn, Tom Hanks, Daniel Day Lewis), and not that his performance wasn't phenomenal, he just won't steal votes from Franco or Firth. Eisenberg's win is that he is nominated, and a fresh face hardly wins this category. No one really saw Bardem in Biutiful (which will be the only film I won't see), so it comes down to Firth vs. Franco. Franco does an amazing job carrying a film all by himself, similar to Sam Rockwell in Moon, but I feel with Firth's powerful performance in a movie that did better in theater, and him not winning recently , that its almost a guarantee that Firth wins. Shout out to Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine.

My pick is Colin Firth. Pretty easy and safe.

Best Actress. Tons of good ones here.

Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone

Winter's Bone and Jennifer Lawrence is the slow, character driven film that Oscar loves, but will not blow anyone away when they see it. It's good, very good, but doesn't stand out. In a category typically given to a newcomer, Lawrence will not be winning this statue. Blue Valentine is probably the saddest and most depressing movie you'll ever see (yes, worse than Revolutionary Road), and she is phenomenal, but something says this isn't her year. My verdict is still out on Rabbit Hole, and I can update tomorrow if I feel her performance is noteworthy, which I'm assuming it is. But this race comes down to Bening and Portman. Bening steals the show in Kids Are All Right, and has the standout performance that has some extreme depth to her character. Although Bening stands out, Portman has been the runaway winner so far. Black Swan is great. Just great. Portman displays both sides of the character needed for the movie, and dropped 20 plus pounds to play the role. I'd be okay with either Bening or Portman winning, and you'd think Bening was due this being her fourth nomination without a win, but this is one category where voters don't care if they're long overdue (see Streep, Meyrl).

The easy pick, and favorite is Portman, but I'm going with Bening for the upset.

Best Supporting Actor/Actress

I'll be brief here. The nominees include:
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech

My pick here is Steinfeld. Fresh face, comedic and unforgettable performance. Leo was fantastic, but she will split votes with Adams for the Fighter. I hear that Weaver was phenomenal in Animal Kingdom, and can update accordingly after I view it tomorrow. Helena Bonham Carter was good, but didn't stand out in a film chalked full of top notch roles. True Grit needs to be recognized at least once on Oscar night, and it will be here in this category.

Christian Bale - The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Mark Ruffalo - The Kid's Are All Right
Jeremy Renner - The Town

This one is easy. The only long shot at this award is Rush, who didn't have to stretch himself much for the King's Speech, but still delivered, and helped make that movie so good. But the easy winner, and obvious one, is Christian Bale. Who takes his body and character to new limits (see The Machinist). Renner is great, and will be back again to someday win his Oscar, Ruffalo and Hawkes are somewhat question marks for me. I felt Andrew Garfield from the Social Network had a great performance, more memorable than these two, but it doesn't matter, neither of them stand a chance.

The winner is Bale. Duh.

Best Director: my pick is David Fincher for the Social Network.
Best Original Screenplay: my pick is Inception and Chris Nolan; it should win over The King's Speech but likely won't.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorking for the Social Network.
Best Score: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for the Social Network.
Best Editing: I like the Social Network here for the reason that they use one actor for the twins, but would be okay with 127 Hours.

There it is, my Oscar picks. I encourage you to challenge me on my choices. I enjoy dialog. Enjoy!